[Weather_Warnings] SPC Day 2 Outlook

[Weather Notices from RiverCityWeather.Net]

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ACUS02 KWNS 070536
SWODY2
SPC AC 070533

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST THU MAR 06 2008

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GULF STATES TROUGH WILL EJECT
NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS VERY
INTENSE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...WELL IN EXCESS OF 120 KT...ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND RACES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO
THE DELMARVA.  12 HR HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 240 M WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG ASCENT AND FOCUSED
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES ARE
RIDICULOUSLY STRONG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH 70-90KT SFC-6KM
VALUES EXPECTED WHERE SFC-BASED CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE.  AT THIS
TIME THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE ANTICIPATED WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PSEUDO ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITH SBCAPE VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG.  AT THIS TIME WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OTHERWISE
STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG SHARP COLD FRONT. 
HOWEVER...IF IT APPEARS MEANINGFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THIS REGION THEN A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE WARRANTED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..ELSEWHERE...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BEFORE
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS SHUNTED OFF THE SRN FL PENINSULA.  A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PROVE RATHER ROBUST...HOWEVER TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND VEERING FLOW AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT SUGGEST
GREATEST RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG DIGGING SPEED MAXIMUM WILL ENHANCE THE
RISK OF CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION.  MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED DURING THE FAVORED LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ALONG/NORTH
OF DIGGING SPEED MAX.

.DARROW.. 03/07/2008



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