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Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of MexicoHurricane BERTHA
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Hurricane BERTHA Public Advisory Number 23
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE JUL 08 2008 -
Hurricane BERTHA Forecast/Advisory Number 23
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 08 2008 -
Hurricane BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 23
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008 -
Hurricane BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 08 2008 -
Hurricane BERTHA Graphics
Issued at 2100Z
Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Graphic last updated Tuesday July 08 2008 20:32:21 UTC
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 081733 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER RHOME
National Hurricane Center 
Tropical Activity Investigation AreasZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 1035 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
Tropics Model Plot(s)
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Local Tropical Cyclone Hazards

Local Wind Hazard
Local Flood Hazard
Hurricane Names for the 2007 Season

Andrea ------- Active: 05-09-07 - Inactive: 05-11-07 - US Landfall: N - Max Intensity: Sub TS
Barry -------- Active: 06-01-07 - Inactive: 06-03-07 - US Landfall: N - Max Intensity: TS
Chantal ------ Active: 07-31-07 - Inactive: 08-01-07 - US Landfall: N - Max Intensity: TS
Dean --------- Active: 08-14-07 - Inactive: 08-23-07 - US Landfall: N - Max Intensity: Cat 5
Erin --------- Active: 08-15-07 - Inactive: 08-16-07 - US Landfall: Y - Max Intensity: TS
Felix -------- Active: 09-01-07 - Inactive: 09-05-07 - US Landfall: N - Max Intensity: Cat 5
Gabrielle ---- Active: 09-07-07 - Inactive: 09-11-07 - US Landfall: N - Max Intensity: TS
Humberto ----- Active: 09-12-07 - Inactive: 09-14-07 - US Landfall: Y - Max Intensity: Cat 1
Ingrid ------- Active: 09-14-07 - Inactive: 09-17-07 - US Landfall: N - Max Intensity: TS
Jerry -------- Active: 09-23-07 - Inactive: 09-25-07 - US Landfall: N - Max Intensity: TS
Karen -------- Active: 09-25-07 - Inactive: -------- - US Landfall: N - Max Intensity: TS
Lorenzo ------ Active: 09-27-07 - Inactive: -------- - US Landfall: N - Max Intensity: Cat 1
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
Tropical Storm Information Archive
Hurricane Background Information
Hurricanes are products of an interaction between both the ocean and the atmosphere. Fueled by energy from the warm ocean waters, they can be steered by the easterly trade winds, as well as the temperate westerlies. Some hurricanes, especially strong ones, are even able to alter the environment that steers them. This is a major reason why it can sometimes be very difficult to predict where a particular hurricane will track.
Tracking Hurricanes
The National Hurricane Center (NHC), in Miami FL is responsible for tracking and forecasting movement for all tropical storms and hurricanes across the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the eastern Pacific. The forecasters at the NHC use many different tools to help them make the best forecast possible. Some of those tools include: Satellite imagery, Ship/bouy observations, aircraft reconnaissance, and computer track models. Aircraft reconnaissance is typically performed by the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the Air Force Reserve, known as the "Hurricane Hunters". The mission of the Hurricane Hunters is to fly into tropical storms/hurricanes to gather real-time data about the pressure and wind fields of the storm. This crucial data can then be input into the computer track models, helping the hurricane forecasters at the NHC to make the best possible track prediction of the storm.
Official Hurricane Season
The official Atlantic Basin (including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico) Hurricane Season runs from June 1 through November 30. These dates were chosen from climatological records, which show that the majority of tropical storms and hurricanes occur during this six month period, with a peak in activity from about mid August to mid October. However, tropical systems have been known to develop outside of this time frame, but it is relatively rare. Each year on average, the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will see about 10 named storms (including hurricanes and tropical storms), six of which will be hurricanes. Usually, most hurricanes remain out over the open ocean, causing problems mainly to shipping. However, about five hurricanes strike somewhere along the United States coastline every three years. Of these five, two will be major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.)
Seasonal Hurricane Prediction
Some scientists are trying to predict how many tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes there will be each year. One of the most well known scientist that makes such predictions is Dr. William Gray, a professor at Colorado State University. Each year, Dr. Gray makes his first prediction in November for the following tropical season. Gray then makes several updates to this forecast, one in April, then in June, and a final update in August.
Tropical Definitions
Tropical Cyclone: A generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale cyclone originating over tropical or subtropical waters with organized convection and a definite cyclonic (counter-clockwise) surface wind circulation.
Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum one-minute sustained surface wind is 38 mph (33 kts) or less.
Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum one-minute sustained surface wind ranges from 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 kts) inclusive.
Hurricane/Typhoon: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum one-minute sustained surface wind is 74 mph (64 kts) or greater. "Typhoon" is the term used for hurricane-strength tropical cyclones in the western Pacific Ocean.
Storm Surge: An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a tropical cyclone or other intense storm. The height of the surge is computed by subtracting the "normal" astronomical tide from the observed level of the sea (storm tide).
Storm Tide: The actual level of the sea which results from the astronomical tide combined with the storm surge. The Storm Tide = Storm Surge + Astronomical Tide
Hurricane Warning: Issued when the one-minute sustained surface winds of 74 mph (64 kts) or higher associated with a hurricane are expected along a specified coastal area within 24 hrs or less.
Hurricane Watch: Issued for specific coastal areas when a hurricane or incipient hurricane conditions pose a possible threat, generally within 36 hrs.
Tropical Storm Warning: Issued when the one-minute sustained surface winds within the range of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 kts) are expected along a specified coastal area within 24 hrs or less.
Tropical Storm Watch: Issued when tropical storm, or tropical storm conditions pose a threat to coastal areas, generally within 36 hrs.
Hurricane Local Statement (HLS): Issued to the public by local NWS offices to provide more specific information about how a tropical storm or hurricane will affect a particular NWS office's county warning area (CWA). Examples of some information may be: Onset time of tropical storm/hurricane force winds, amount of rainfall expected, storm surge values, evacuation orders/road closures/shelters, and any other information that would help to reduce the loss of life and property. A new HLS is released to the public approximately one hour after each hurricane/tropical storm advisory is sent by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL.
Hurricane Classifications
Hurricanes are rated using the Saffir Simpson Scale. This scale ranges from category 1 (weakest) to category 5 (strongest). This classification scheme can be used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane. Below are the wind speeds assigned to each category.
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Note: Categories 3 - 5 are considered a "MAJOR HURRICANE".
Hurricane Hazards
When a hurricane moves onshore, they can cause a massive amount of destruction due to storm surge, high winds, floods, and even tornadoes. Listed below are some details about each of these hazards. For explanation of some of the terms, see the Definitions Section.
Winds: When most people think about the destructive power of a hurricane, they most likely think about the strong winds. With wind speeds ranging from 74 mph in a minimal hurricane, to greater than 155 mph in a Catastrophic storm, it should be no surprise that most buildings, especially mobile homes, are no match to a hurricane's winds. Remember, mobile homes are extremely vulnerable to the high winds of a hurricane, and should be evacuated if expected to be within the strong wind region of the storm.
Storm Surge: The storm surge is abnormal rise in water due to the wind and pressure forces of a tropical system. In general, storm surges occur near and just to the right of where the center of the hurricane makes landfall. Potentially, the most disastrous surges result along coasts with low-lying terrain, which allows the water to penetrate well inland, or across inland bodies of water such as bays, lakes and rivers. Typically, the rising water associated with the surge affects an area of about 50 to 100 miles, and lasts for several hours. History has proven that the storm surge poses the greatest threat to life and property for coastal residents, with the most hurricane related deaths being caused by drowning.
Heavy Rains/Inland Flooding: It is not uncommon for heavy rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches to occur with the passage of a hurricane, which can result in widespread destructive flooding. In fact, even relatively weak tropical storms can produce excessive amounts of rain, especially if they interact with frontal boundaries and/or mountainous terrain. In the past 30 years, inland flooding due to tropical cyclones has been responsible for more than half of the deaths. Deaths caused by inland fresh water flooding have now become greater than coastal flooding, most likely because residents that live along or near coastal locations are usually evacuated during a tropical cyclone event.
Tornadoes: This is probably the least well known hazards of tropical systems. Tornadoes typically form in the right-front quadrant of either a landfalling tropical storm, or hurricane. These tornadoes usually develop in the outer rainbands of the tropical system, and typically less weak than the classic mid-western type tornadoes.
Hurricane Preparedness
There are many preparations that can be done before, during and after a hurricane strikes. One of the most important, is to develop a plan of action in the event of a hurricane. A plan becomes especially essential if you live near the water, where it may become necessary for you to evacuate. Some questions to ask yourself might be:
If you had to evacuate, do you know where you would go?
If evacuating, do you know the route(s) you would take?
How would you inform other family members both in and out of state where you are and how you're doing?
What needs to be done to prepare your house/property for the storm?
These are only a few of the concerns that must be considered when a tropical storm or hurricane threatens your area.
For more detailed information about Preparing for a Hurricane, visit the following web sites:
American Red Cross
Federal Emergency Mgt Agency (FEMA)
Whether you stay at home or evacuate, it is also very important for you to stay informed of the latest information concerning the storm. One of the best ways to do that is to monitor the broadcasts of the NOAA Weather Radio. Broadcasts run 24 hrs a day, seven days a week, covering everything from current weather conditions and forecasts, to the latest watches, warnings and advisories. Having a NOAA Weather Radio also comes in handy for hearing about other threatening weather events such as severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. You can purchase a weather radio from most department stores or large electronic stores.
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Aircraft Reconnaissance Reports from the Hurricane Hunters |
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Weather Facts
Folklore - "The moon and the weather May change together; But change of the moon Does not change the weather."

